In Nigeria, past and present governments tried to reduce adverse effect of inflation on the economy but not much has been achieved in this direction. Therefore, this study makes an analysis on the effect inflation on economic growth in Nigeria over period of 1981 to 2018. To achieve the objective of the study, annual time series data on GDP (economic growth) inflation, exchange rate and interest rate were collected from the online database of central bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the world development indicators. The study employs augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), co-integration and vector error correction models .From the result of the ADF test the variables are stationary at first difference. However, the Johansen Co-integration test shows the existence of long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The result of long run co-integration coefficients shows that inflation has negative and significant effect on GDP. Whereby, exchange rate and interest rate have positive and significant effect on GDP. In addition, the error correction term of the vector error correction model is negative and statistically significant. Based on the findings of the study, the study recommends that monetary authority should embark on inflationary targeting based on single digit inflation rate, government should encourage production of goods and services because increase in the output level can reduce inflation to the required minimum level and government should embark on suitable exchange rate and interest rate policies that will boost the economy. Keyword: first keyword, Second keyword, Third keyword (Most relevant to your abstract)

This study explores the dynamic interaction between exchange rate, inflation and economic output in Nigeria between 1999 and 2017 using Vector Error Correction (VEC) granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results establish that there is unidirectional causality running from economic output (GDP) to exchange rate in Nigeria. The study further confirms that exchange rate significantly exerts a long run positive impact on economic performance in the country, while the impact of inflation on economic output in the long run is found to be negative. Furthermore, economic output exerts a negative impact on both inflation and exchange rate, but inflation positively influences exchange rate. Another evidence reveals that in the long run, exchange rate depreciation impacts positively on economic output, while inflation impacts negatively on output. The assertion that exchange rate depreciation leads to positive economic performance could be attributed to the positive long run effect of real sector development. Thus, the study suggests that policymakers should initiate measures that could aid financial and real sector development. Also, it is suggested that promoting the habit of consuming made in Nigeria goods, through awareness programmes and quality control measures could mitigate the inflationary effect of the external sector on Nigerian economy. Funding: This study received no specific financial support Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Acknowledgement: We are very grateful for the comments of the anonymous reviewers, which have significantly improved the profoundness of analysis of the paper. We are particularly indebted to the editorial team of the journal for their professional assessment and constructive feedbacks in shaping the paper.

The link between inflation and total production has been widely reviewed with mixed results and differing opinions. In the case of Nigeria, we have strengthened on the coverage period and the quantitative techniques of analysis in other to overcome some limitations in previous studies. This study therefore reexamined the relationship between inflation and output level in Nigeria using annualized time series from 1960 to 2014. The Autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model was used to estimate the growth regression model while the Bound test was used to test for long-run relationship. Vector Autoregressive causality test was utilized to determine the directional of causality between our series of interest. The findings showed that inflation and official exchange rate have non-significant positive impact on Nigeria's output level between 1960 and 2014. Real interest rate had significant negative impact on output. The result of the Bound test revealed that there is a long-run relationship between output and inflation. Moreover, the findings further indicated that there is a bi-directional causality running from inflation to output, and from output to inflation. This means that past values of inflation can help to predict output level and vice-versa. We, therefore, concluded that inflation level within a modest threshold has the potential of Original Research Article

Over the last 50 years, Nigeria’s industrial sector has declined considerably in both productivity and contribution to economic growth in the country. Empirical evidence suggests that exchange rate fluctuations and rising inflation has impeded industry output growth in the country. This study examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation on industrial output in Nigeria. The study covers the period between 1981Q1 and 2015Q4. The study adopted the SVAR econometric technique to analyses the impact of a shock to the independent variables on industry output. The study found that a positive shock to exchange rate has a negative impact on output growth and that a positive shock to inflation has a temporal negative effect on output and becomes positive after the fourth quarter. The forecast error variance decomposition technique showed that exchange rate and inflation account for about 2.6 percent and 10 percent of variations in industry output respectively. The study reco...

This paper examined the impact of the changes in the macroeconomic factors on the output of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Preliminary evaluation of the data was conducted using both descriptive statistics and stationarity evaluation. The test indicated that not all the variables are normal. The occurrence of order integration at first level difference necessitated the deployment of the Johansen cointegration test. The findings revealed no short run association among manufacturing output and each of GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply and unemployment rate. Negative relationship existed amongst inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, broad money supply on one hand, and manufacturing output. The inflation rate and interest rate, were statistically insignificant. However, significant and positive relationship existed between GDP of the previous year and unemployment on the one hand and manufacturing output on the other, at 5 percent level. The results showed that manufacturing was a veritable engine of economic growth. The post estimation tests showed presence of serial correlation but evidence of heteroscedasticity existed which, made the model inefficient, but its estimator is still unbiased. The study recommended the harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policies for the attainment of macroeconomic stability and avoidance of rapid policy summersaults.

This paper examined the effect of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing annualized data covering the period 1986 – 2015, which were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin of various issues. This study employed ex-post research design because the variables were based on events that had already taken place, which the researcher could neither control nor manipulate. Some preliminary tests were performed to ensure data stationarity, and also ascertain how well the series were distributed. While Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) was adopted for the former, descriptive statistics explained the latter. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was used to estimate the variables. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) formed the dependent variable, Inflation Rate (INFR), Interest Rate (Interest Rate) and Exchange Rate (EXCHR) made up the independent variables. Statistical outcomes were interpreted based on a 5 percent level of significance. The regression results indicated that INFR had a positive and non-significant effect on economic growth (measured by RGDP) in Nigeria for the period studied. The study recommended that government should adopt tight monetary policy measures to stabilize tide of inflationary pressures on our economy. It also recommended that political leaders should minimize unjustified public spending and promote fiscal prudence.