PRICE FORECASTING OF FULLY DRESSED CHICKEN IN THE PHILIPPINES

Leomar M. Sabroso, Joeteddy B. Bugarin

Abstract


The Philippine chicken industry has been dominated by backyard farmers. This study was conducted to determine the market trend and forecast the price of fully dressed chicken in Davao City. A monthly time series of secondary data was used in the study obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) from January 1990 to January 2021, analyzed using an ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the price and analyze the trend. The result revealed that the best-fit model was ARIMA (3, 1, 1), which indicated high price volatility throughout the analysis (p-value = 0.000) and the model indicates that the forecasted price from 2021-2024 is consistent.

JEL: Q10; Q12; Q13

 

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Keywords


chicken, forecasting, ARMA/ARIMA, chicken price

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v7i2.1459

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