ECONOMIC GROWTH DETERMINANTS IN MOROCCO: SHORT AND LONG-TERM ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC DIRECT INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS / DÉTERMINANTS DE LA CROISSANCE ÉCONOMIQUE AU MAROC : ANALYSE A COURT ET LONG TERME DE L'IMPACT DE L'INVESTISSEMENT DIRECT ET DES EXPORTATIONS
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to explore the short and long-term impact of foreign and domestic investment and exports on economic growth in Morocco from 1990 to 2023. By integrating a comprehensive literature review with econometric modeling, this research utilizes Time Series Analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach, implemented via the R programming language, to examine the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (DI), and exports (EX) on economic growth, as measured by real GDP per capita. The main findings of the study demonstrate the significant roles played by all three factors - FDI, DI, and EX - in driving Morocco's short- and long-term economic growth, contributing to stability and resilience against economic shocks. These findings underscore the substantial contributions of FDI, DI, and EX to Morocco's economic expansion and global competitiveness. The analysis concludes an optimistic forecast for Morocco's economic future, projecting significant GDP per capita growth driven by continued expansion in investments and exports. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors, enriches the understanding of the economic dynamics in Morocco, and facilitates strategic decision-making for sustainable economic development.
Dans un contexte économique mondial en constante évolution, les pays cherchent à comprendre et à optimiser leurs stratégies de développement afin de rester compétitifs sur la scène internationale. En tant qu'acteur émergent, le Maroc ne fait pas exception à cette dynamique. L'objectif de cette étude est d'explorer le développement économique du Maroc de 1990 à 2023. En intégrant une revue exhaustive de la littérature et une modélisation économétrique, cette recherche utilise l'analyse des séries temporelles et l'approche du modèle de correction des erreurs vectorielles (VECM), mise en œuvre via le langage de programmation R, pour examiner les effets de l'investissement direct étranger (IDE), de l'investissement domestique (ID) et des exportations (EX) sur la croissance économique, telle que mesurée par le PIB réel par habitant. Les résultats démontrent les rôles significatifs joués par les trois facteurs - IDE, ID et EX - dans la croissance économique à court et à long terme du Maroc, contribuant à la stabilité et à la résilience face aux chocs économiques. Ces résultats soulignent les contributions substantielles de l'IDE, de l'ID et de l'EX à l'expansion économique et à la compétitivité mondiale du Maroc. L'analyse conclut à des prévisions optimistes pour l'avenir économique du Maroc, en projetant une croissance significative du PIB par habitant tirée par une expansion continue des investissements et des exportations. Cette étude offre des informations précieuses aux décideurs politiques et aux investisseurs, enrichit la compréhension de la dynamique économique au Maroc et facilite la prise de décisions stratégiques pour un développement économique durable.
JEL: F21, F43, O11, O19, C32
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v8i2.1687
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