TIMING OPTIMAL DES PAIEMENTS INTERNATIONAUX SELON LES MARCHÉS ASIATIQUE, EUROPÉEN ET NORD-AMÉRICAIN : CAS DE LA RD CONGO / OPTIMAL TIMING OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS ACROSS ASIAN, EUROPEAN AND NORTH AMERICAN MARKETS: THE CASE OF DR CONGO

Edson Niyonsaba Sebigunda, John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba

Abstract


Cette étude analyse les variations des taux de change entre les sessions de marché (Asie, Europe, Amérique) pour optimiser le timing des paiements internationaux, avec une perspective particulière sur la République Démocratique du Congo, dont l'économie dépend fortement des devises étrangères pour ses activités quotidiennes. Cinq paires de devises sont examinées (2023-2025), en accordant une attention spéciale au CDF/USD comme cas d'étude représentatif des défis uniques auxquels font face les économies émergentes Africaines. Notre méthodologie combine analyse statistique, modélisation GARCH et apprentissage automatique (Gradient Boosting) pour identifier les patterns temporels exploitables. Les résultats révèlent des inefficiences systématiques, avec des économies potentielles atteignant 1,5% sur les transactions internationales. La prévisibilité varie considérablement (R²=0,75 pour l'EUR/USD contre R²=0,34-0,40 pour le CDF/USD), reflétant les différentes dynamiques de marché. Cette recherche offre aux entreprises Congolaises, institutions financières et à la Banque Centrale du Congo un cadre pratique pour optimiser leurs opérations de change, réduire les coûts de transaction et améliorer la gestion des réserves, contribuant ainsi à renforcer la stabilité économique nationale dans un contexte de forte dépendance aux devises étrangères.

 

JEL: F31, G15, D53, O55, E58

 

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Keywords


marchés des changes, microstructure du marché, arbitrage temporel, Franc Congolais, économies émergentes

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejefr.v8i8.1939

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