LA DYNAMIQUE DE LA SOUTENABILITÉ DE LA DETTE PUBLIQUE FACE AU CHOC DE TAUX DE CROISSANCE / THE DYNAMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY PUBLIC DEBT FACING THE SHOCK OF GROWTH RATE

Nouhaila Belfatmi, Ouakil Hicham

Abstract


Le but de ce travail est de donner un essai sur la problématique de la soutenabilité de la dette publique. On cherche à analyser l’aptitude de la dette publique à garder sa stabilité du développement, en appliquant un choc de croissance. Le modèle utilisé pour modéliser la dynamique de la dette est le vectoriel auto régressif (VAR), permettant d’étudier le mécanisme de propagation des chocs par le biais des fonctions de réponse (IRF). Les principaux résultats produits une vision future sur les évolutions probables de la dette en présence d’un choc de PIB. Ils montrent que la dette publique serait interactive avec le choc survenu dans le PIB, avec la présence d’un caractère tendancielle. Cette évolution tendancielle pose clairement le risque d’une insoutenabilité de la dette.

 

The aim of this paper is to give a try on the debt sustainability issues. The aim is to analyse the ability of public debt to maintain its development stability by applying a growth shock. The model used for designing debt dynamics is the autoregressive vector (VAR), enabling the study of the mechanism of shock propagation through response functions (IRF). The main results provide a future view of likely debt developments in the face of a GDP shock. They show that public debt would be interactive with the shock in GDP, with the presence of a trend character. This trend clearly poses the risk of unsustainability of debt. 

 

JEL : H60, H63, H68

 

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Keywords


dette publique, soutenabilité, chocs, VAR, IRF / public debt, sustainability, shocks, VAR, IRF

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References


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