PREDICTIONS AND OUTCOMES OF THE 2018 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN EKITI STATE, NIGERIA: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
Abstract
Politics in Ekiti State since return of democratic rule in 1999 has been characterized with swings in political behavior in support of the two major political parties, Alliance for Democracy (AD), now All People’s Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The 2018 election was massively predicted in favour of the PDP candidate who was the incumbent Deputy Governor, vigorously campaigned for by the governor, Ayo Fayose, who had once defeated the APC candidate (the then sitting governor) in all the 16 local governments. This study accounts for the disparity in the electorates’ predictions and outcomes of the election. Both primary and secondary sources of data were employed. Questionnaire were used to sample the opinion of Ekiti residents who were of voting age (18 and above). Also, official records and archives were used to gauge the predictions and outcomes of the election. Primary data gathered were analysed with simple percentages while secondary data were descriptively analysed. The study discovered that poverty, coupled with the uncared attitude of security agents, allowed for manipulations which accounts for the differences in the predictions and outcomes of the election. The study recommends fair play and politics devoid of violence, harassment and intimidation.
Article visualizations:
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Akinfenwa, G. (2018); Nigeria: How ‘See and Buy’ outsmarted‘ Stomach Infrastructure’ in Ekiti, The Guardian, July 16, https://allafrica.com/stories/201807160933.html, accessed 19/12/2018
Akinkuotu, E. (2018); “INEC Decries “Vote Buying” in Ekiti Governorship Election”, The Punch, July 18, https://punchng.com/inec-decries-vote-buying-in-ekiti-governorship-election/ accessed 18/11/2018
Amuda, E, (2017); Ekiti 2018: “It is Ikere’s Time”, The Nigerian Voice, March 18
https://www.thenigerianvoice.com/movie/247173/ekiti-2018-it-is-ikere-time.html, accessed 12/11/2018
Atoyebi, O. (2018); “Ekiti Vote Buying: Rewarding Emerging Electoral Fraud with Victory”, The Punch, July 22 https://punchng.com/ekiti-vote-buying-rewarding-emerging-electoral-fraud-with-victory/, accessed 15/11/2018
Balogun, W. (2018); “Ekiti Election Falls Below Global Standards – Observers”, The Sun, July 18, http://sunnewsonline.com/eliti-election-global-standards, accessed 12/11/2018
BBC News, (2018), July 16, https://www.bbc.com/pidgin/tori-44827936, accessed 15/11/2018
Bloomberg, (2018), Kayode Fayemi, November 12,
https://www.bloomingberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=241366283&privacpId=128471872&previousTitle=Niger%20Delta%20Power%20%Holding%20Company%20Limited, accessed 12/11/2018
Collins English Dictionary (2018), Definition of Prediction”,
https://www.collinsdictionary/english/prediction, accessed 19/12/2018
Ekeghe, N. (2018); “Pre-Election Polls Reveals Eleka in Early Lead”, This Day, June 26
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/06/26/pre-election-polls-reveal-eleka-in-early-lead-in-ekiti/, accessed 7/11/2018
Durotoye, (2014); “Electoral Behaviour in Ekiti 2014 Governorship Election in Nigeria”, Research on Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 15
Egbas, J. (2018); “7 Things We Learnt from Governorship Battle”, Pulse Nigeria, Published 17/7/2018 https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/7-things-we-learnt-from-ekiti-governorship-election-id8618449.html, accessed 15/11/2018
Ekiti Defender, (2018); “The Full Biography and Life History of Dr. Kolapo Olusola Eleka, January 30” http://ekitidefender.com/read-full-biography-life-history-dr-kolapo-olusola-eleka/, accessed 12/11/2018)
Ekiti State Government of Nigeria, (2018); Dr. Kolapo Olusola,
https://ekitistate.gov.ng/administration/executive/executive-council/kolapo-olusola/, accessed 12/11/2018)
Gass, S. I. (2018); “What is Games Theory and Some of its Implications”, Scientific American,
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-game-theory-and-w/, accessed 17/11/2018)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org, accessed 13/11/2018
https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/game-theory, accessed 17/11/2018))
Investing Answers, (2018); “Games Theory”,
https://investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/economics/gametheory=2160, accessed 17/11/2018
Investopedia, 2018; “Games Theory”, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gametheory.asp, accessed 17/11/2018
Johnson, D. and Akinrefon, D. (2018); “Ekiti: ‘See –and-buy’ Caused Chaos across Wards, Polling Units – Virginia Marumoa-Gae, America Monitor, Vanguard, July 22, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/ekiti-see-and-buy-caused-chaos-across-wards-polling-units-virginia--marumoa-gae-america-monitor/, accessed 19/12/2018
Longman English Dictionary, (2018); “Prediction”,
https://www-Idoceonline.com/dictionary/prediction, accessed 19/12/2018
Martin, (1978); “The Selective Usefulness of Games Theory”, Social Studies of Science, Vol. 8, 1978, 85-110 https://uow.edu.au/-bmartin/pubs/78sss.html, accessed 17/11/2018
Merriam’s Webster, (2018); “Predict”, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/predict, accessed 19/12/2018
NDI and IRI (2018); “Statement of the Joint NDI/IRI Pre-Election Assessment Mission to
Nigeria”, July 20, http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2018-7-20-ndi-iri-nigeria-peam-statement.pdf, accessed 16/11/2018
Ogundele, K. (2018); “Ekiti: Election Falls Short of Global Standards, Say US Observer Group, Others”, The Punch July 18, https://punchng.com/election-fell-short-of-global-standards-say-us-observer-group-others/, accessed 12/11/2018
Ojomoyela, R. (2018); Ekit 2018: Who Wear the Diadem, Vanguard, July 7, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/ekiti-2018-who-wears-the-diadem/, accessed 21/12/2018
Oke, T. (2018); “Why Vote Buying Matters, Why it Does Not”, The Punch, August 7,
https://punching.com/why-vote-buying-matters-why-it-does-not/, accessed 19/12/2018
Oluwaleye, J. M. and Omilusi, M. O. (2017); “Vote Buying and Deficit of Democratic Values in Nigeria: Interrogating the Gubernatorial Elections in Ekiti and Osun States”, African Journal of Social Sciences, Volume 7 Number 1 pp. 40-50
Oluwole, J. (2018); “Ekiti 2018: APC Begs Losing Aspirants to Backs Fayemi”, Premium Times, May 14, https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-west/268313-ekiti-2018-apc-begs-losing-aspirants-to-back-fayemi.html accessed 10/11/2018
Omoshola, D. (2018); “Ekiti 2018 Governorship Election: Foretelling the Outcome”,
https://www.africa.com/ekiti-2018-governorship-election-foretelling-the-outcome accessed 12/11/2018
Opejobi, S. (2018); “Ekiti Guber: Fayemi May Not Win Governorship Election – APC Chieftain Oni”, Daily Post, June 1, (http://dailypost.ng/2018/06/01/ekiti-guber-fayemi-may-not-win-governorship-election-apc-chieftain-oni/ rtd 10/11/2018
Oyebode, Y. (2018); “Dr. Kayode Fayemi (The Incoming Governor for Ekiti State)”, The
Nigerian Voice, October 13, https://www.thenigerianvoice.com/news/271559/dr-john-kayode-fayemi-incoming-governor-of-ekiti-state.html, accessed 12/11/2018
Rodriguez, F. (2016); “The Many Ways of Buying Votes”, RAPPLER,
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/121802-vote-buying-methods, accessed 19/12/2018
Sahara Reporters, (2018); “Coalition of CSOs: We have Evidence of Malpractice in Ekiti…We’ll Shock Nigerians When We Release Our Findings”, July 16, http://saharareporters.com/2018/07/16/coalition-csoa-we-have-evidence-malpractice-ekiti%E2%80%A6-we%E2%80%99II-shock-nigerians-when-we-release, accessed 12/11/2018
Scheve, T. (2018); “How Games Theory Works”,
https://science.howstuffworks.com/game-theory7.htm accessed 17/11/2018
The Cable (2018); “CLOSE UP: Kayode Fayemi, the Comeback Kid Who Lost Gracefully in 2014”, July 15, https://www.thecable.ng/close-up-fayemi-the-comeback-kid-who-lost-gracefully-in-2014, accessed 12/11/2018
The Punch, (2018); “Irregularities in Ekiti Election”, Editorial, July 25,
https://punchng.com//irregularities-in-ekiti-election/, accessed 16/11/2018
Tribune, (2018); “Ekiti Gov Poll: Okada Riders Rally Support for Kolapo Eleka”, April 23 https://www.tribuneonline.com/143274 accessed 10/11/2018
US Legal (2018); “Vote Buying Law and Legal Definition”,
https://definitions.uslegal.com/v/vote-buying/ accessed 19/12/2018
Vanguard, (2018); “Fayemi Begs Ekiti People for Forgiveness”, May 13,
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/05/988490/ accessed 10/11/2018
Yiaga Africa, (2018); “Duly Elected or Duly Purchased? Report on Vote Buying and Selling in the 2018 Ekiti Governorship Elections”, YIAGA AFRICA Initiative, August, http://www.watchingthevote.org, accessed 2/11/2
Young African Leaders Initiative, (2018), “What’s the Harm in Buying Votes?”
https://yali.state.gov/harm-vote-buying/, accessed 19/12/2018
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.46827/ejsss.v0i0.594
Copyright (c) 2019 Janet Monisola Oluwaleye, Olamide Ojogbede
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The research works published in this journal are free to be accessed. They can be shared (copied and redistributed in any medium or format) and\or adapted (remixed, transformed, and built upon the material for any purpose, commercially and\or not commercially) under the following terms: attribution (appropriate credit must be given indicating original authors, research work name and publication name mentioning if changes were made) and without adding additional restrictions (without restricting others from doing anything the actual license permits). Authors retain the full copyright of their published research works and cannot revoke these freedoms as long as the license terms are followed.
Copyright © 2016 - 2023. European Journal Of Social Sciences Studies (ISSN 2501-8590) is a registered trademark of Open Access Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
This journal is a serial publication uniquely identified by an International Standard Serial Number (ISSN) serial number certificate issued by Romanian National Library. All the research works are uniquely identified by a CrossRef DOI digital object identifier supplied by indexing and repository platforms. All the research works published on this journal are meeting the Open Access Publishing requirements and standards formulated by Budapest Open Access Initiative (2002), the Bethesda Statement on Open Access Publishing (2003) and Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities (2003) and can be freely accessed, shared, modified, distributed and used in educational, commercial and non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Copyrights of the published research works are retained by authors.
